P50/P90 Production Estimator
Estimate energy production at various probability levels
Project Parameters
Location
Resource Data
European range: 850-1800 kWh/m²/year
Technical Parameters
P50 Production
17 GWh
P90 Production
19 GWh
P50 Capacity Factor
1.9%
P90/P50 Ratio
110.9%
P10 (Optimistic)
15 GWh
Specific Yield
170 MWh/MW
Total Uncertainty
8.5%
Lifetime P50
393 GWh
Exceedance Probability Curve
Annual production at different probability levels
P90 (Conservative)
P50 (Expected)
P10 (Optimistic)
Yearly Production Profile
P10/P50/P90 production over project lifetime with degradation
Uncertainty Breakdown
Contribution to total uncertainty
Uncertainty Sources
Standard deviation by category
Resource Assessment5.0%
Uncertainty in solar irradiance or wind speed measurements
Measurement Period3.0%
Limited historical data or correlation uncertainty
Interannual Variability5.0%
Year-to-year weather variation
Technical Performance3.0%
Equipment performance vs specifications
Model Uncertainty2.0%
Energy yield model accuracy
Production Summary
Key production metrics at different probability levels
| Probability | Annual Production | Capacity Factor | Specific Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | 19 GWh | 2.2% | 189 MWh/MW |
| P75 | 18 GWh | 2.1% | 180 MWh/MW |
| P50 | 17 GWh | 1.9% | 170 MWh/MW |
| P25 | 16 GWh | 1.8% | 160 MWh/MW |
| P10 | 15 GWh | 1.7% | 152 MWh/MW |