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Estimate energy production at various probability levels
European range: 850-1800 kWh/m²/year
Typical range: 5-15% for bifacial modules
Typical range: 2-5% annual average
P50 Production
92 GWh
P90 Production
82 GWh
P50 Capacity Factor
10.5%
P90/P50 Ratio
89.7%
P10 (Optimistic)
101 GWh
Specific Yield
918 MWh/MW
Total Uncertainty
8.1%
Lifetime P50
2.1 TWh
Annual production at different probability levels
P10/P50/P90 production over project lifetime with degradation
Contribution to total uncertainty
Standard deviation by category
Uncertainty in historical resource data (satellite/measured)
Site measurement and data quality uncertainty
MCP (Measure-Correlate-Predict) adjustment uncertainty
Uncertainty in extrapolating to turbine/array locations
Uncertainty in energy production model
Year-to-year weather variation
Key production metrics at different probability levels
| Probability | Annual Production | Capacity Factor | Specific Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| P99 | 75 GWh | 8.5% | 746 MWh/MW |
| P90 | 82 GWh | 9.4% | 823 MWh/MW |
| P84 | 84 GWh | 9.6% | 845 MWh/MW |
| P75 | 87 GWh | 9.9% | 868 MWh/MW |
| P50 | 92 GWh | 10.5% | 918 MWh/MW |
| P25 | 97 GWh | 11.1% | 968 MWh/MW |
| P10 | 101 GWh | 11.6% | 1013 MWh/MW |