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Analyze grid curtailment risk by TSO region and technology
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Curtailment Risk
England North
GB
Curtailment Trend
Queued Capacity
28 GW
Compensation Mechanism
UK Balancing Mechanism
92% of market price
Annual Curtailment (P50)
11.0%
Revenue at Risk
€2M
Expected Compensation
€2M
Net Annual Impact
€140k
Risk Score
Medium RiskP90 Curtailment
14.8%
Lifetime Net Impact
€5M
IRR Adjustment
+110 bps
Bankability
ChallengingOverview Charts · Country Comparison · Advanced Projections below
Projected annual curtailment over project lifetime (P50 and P90)
Annual revenue at risk, compensation, and net impact
Active constraints affecting the project location
Co-located battery storage economics
400 MWh
Recommended Size
€744k
Annual Value
0 yrs
Payback Period
-€88M
NPV (8% DR)
Curtailment Reduction
3.8%
Revenue Recovery
€699k/yr
Arbitrage Value
€4k/yr
England North compared to other regions for Onshore Wind
| Region | Curtailment | Compensation | vs Selected |
|---|---|---|---|
England North | 8.0% | 92% | - |
| England South | 2.5% | 90% | 3.2x higher risk |
| TransnetBW (Baden-Wurttemberg) | 4.0% | 100% | 100% higher risk |
| Extremadura | 4.5% | 0% | 78% higher risk |
| Andalucia | 4.5% | 0% | 78% higher risk |
| Amprion (West Germany) | 5.5% | 100% | 45% higher risk |
| Aragon | 7.0% | 0% | Similar risk |
| TenneT (North/Central) | 7.5% | 100% | Similar risk |
| EirGrid East | 10.0% | 85% | Similar risk |
Strategies to reduce curtailment risk or impact
Add 400 MWh battery storage to capture curtailed energy and shift to peak pricing periods.
Recommended configuration: 400 MWh (4h duration). Expected annual revenue recovery: €0.7M.
Reduction: -3.8%
NPV: -€88M
Negotiate active network management agreement for priority dispatch during constrained periods. Accept curtailment in exchange for faster connection.
Requires agreement with DNO/TSO. Typical ANM agreements include dynamic line ratings and real-time constraint management.
Reduction: -2.2%
Co-locate with industrial demand (hydrogen electrolyzer, data center, or manufacturing) to consume curtailed energy directly.
Electrolyzer sizing: 30-50% of generation capacity. Expected utilization of excess energy: 60-80%. Green hydrogen premium enables positive economics.
Reduction: -5.5%
Participate in or fund grid upgrade works to accelerate connection and reduce constraints. May qualify for earlier connection date.
Typical contribution: EUR 20-80k/MW depending on required works. Timeline reduction: 12-24 months possible.
Reduction: -2.7%
Evaluate connection at different substation or voltage level with less congestion. May require site relocation or longer cable routes.
Connection point screening recommended. Higher voltage connections (275kV+) typically have lower curtailment risk.
Reduction: -3.3%
Deploy AI-powered forecasting to predict curtailment windows and optimize operations. Enables proactive trading and maintenance scheduling.
Machine learning models can predict curtailment with 85%+ accuracy 24h ahead. Integration with trading platform enables position optimization.
Reduction: -0.5%