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PPA vs Merchant Analyzer

Compare the economics of PPA structures vs merchant exposure

Technology

Capacity (MW)

Capacity Factor (%)

Project Life (years)

Power Market

Merchant price auto-populated from WRDS historical data

Latest Spot

25.3

EUR/MWh (2020-11)

5yr Average

26.6

EUR/MWh

Hist. Volatility

93.7%

Annualized

TRc1 (Front)

160.8

EUR/MWh (2021-11)

Historical Price Scenarios

Low (P10)13.3 EUR/MWh

Base (5yr avg)26.6 EUR/MWh

High (P90)37.0 EUR/MWh

Based on WRDS historical data 2000-06 to 2020-11

EEX Phelix Forward Curve (latest)

TRc1 (Front month)160.8 EUR/MWh

TRc2 (2nd nearest)161.2 EUR/MWh

TRc3 (3rd nearest)177.9 EUR/MWh

TRc4 (4th nearest)177.9 EUR/MWh

TRc5 (5th nearest)136.7 EUR/MWh

TRc6 (6th nearest)98.5 EUR/MWh

TRc7 (7th nearest)92.2 EUR/MWh

Source: WRDS Datastream, as of 2021-11

PPA Price (EUR/MWh)

PPA Tenor (years)

Volume Contracted (%)

Annual Escalation (%)

Inflation Indexation

Indexation Type

How the PPA price adjusts for inflation

Scenario Comparison

PPA Scenario

€38.5M

NPV @ 8%

IRR1.9%

Gearing70%

Avg Price€40.4/MWh

Merchant Scenario

€2.8M

NPV @ 8%

IRRN/A

Gearing55%

Avg Price€16.4/MWh

Hybrid Scenario

€21.8M

NPV @ 8%

IRR-7.6%

Gearing63%

Avg Price€27.0/MWh

PPA scenario generates €35.6M more NPV

Break-even merchant price: €53.2/MWh (100% above current assumption)

Annual Cash Flow Comparison

Net cash flow by scenario over project life

Cumulative PPA Premium

Running total of PPA revenue vs merchant (PPA - Merchant)

NPV Sensitivity to Merchant Price

Impact of merchant price changes on scenario NPVs

Risk Comparison

Financing and risk metrics by scenario

PPA vs Merchant Analyzer

Compare the economics of PPA structures vs merchant exposure

Technology

Capacity (MW)

Capacity Factor (%)

Project Life (years)

Power Market

Merchant price auto-populated from WRDS historical data

Latest Spot

25.3

EUR/MWh (2020-11)

5yr Average

26.6

EUR/MWh

Hist. Volatility

93.7%

Annualized

TRc1 (Front)

160.8

EUR/MWh (2021-11)

Historical Price Scenarios

Low (P10)13.3 EUR/MWh

Base (5yr avg)26.6 EUR/MWh

High (P90)37.0 EUR/MWh

Based on WRDS historical data 2000-06 to 2020-11

EEX Phelix Forward Curve (latest)

TRc1 (Front month)160.8 EUR/MWh

TRc2 (2nd nearest)161.2 EUR/MWh

TRc3 (3rd nearest)177.9 EUR/MWh

TRc4 (4th nearest)177.9 EUR/MWh

TRc5 (5th nearest)136.7 EUR/MWh

TRc6 (6th nearest)98.5 EUR/MWh

TRc7 (7th nearest)92.2 EUR/MWh

Source: WRDS Datastream, as of 2021-11

PPA Price (EUR/MWh)

PPA Tenor (years)

Volume Contracted (%)

Annual Escalation (%)

Inflation Indexation

Indexation Type

How the PPA price adjusts for inflation

Scenario Comparison

PPA Scenario

€38.5M

NPV @ 8%

IRR1.9%

Gearing70%

Avg Price€40.4/MWh

Merchant Scenario

€2.8M

NPV @ 8%

IRRN/A

Gearing55%

Avg Price€16.4/MWh

Hybrid Scenario

€21.8M

NPV @ 8%

IRR-7.6%

Gearing63%

Avg Price€27.0/MWh

PPA scenario generates €35.6M more NPV

Break-even merchant price: €53.2/MWh (100% above current assumption)

Annual Cash Flow Comparison

Net cash flow by scenario over project life

Cumulative PPA Premium

Running total of PPA revenue vs merchant (PPA - Merchant)

NPV Sensitivity to Merchant Price

Impact of merchant price changes on scenario NPVs

Risk Comparison

Financing and risk metrics by scenario

PPA vs Merchant Analyzer

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PPA vs Merchant Analyzer

Project Parameters

Market Selection

Market Context

PPA Terms

Merchant Assumptions

Financing Assumptions

Advanced Settings

Counterparty Credit

Scenario Comparison

PPA Scenario

Merchant Scenario

Hybrid Scenario

Annual Cash Flow Comparison

Cumulative PPA Premium

NPV Sensitivity to Merchant Price

Risk Comparison

PPA vs Merchant Analyzer

Project Parameters

Market Selection

Market Context

PPA Terms

Merchant Assumptions

Financing Assumptions

Advanced Settings

Counterparty Credit

Scenario Comparison

PPA Scenario

Merchant Scenario

Hybrid Scenario

Annual Cash Flow Comparison

Cumulative PPA Premium

NPV Sensitivity to Merchant Price

Risk Comparison